“He has been perfecting the Teflon-coated presidency: He sees to it that nothing sticks to him.” Rep. Pat Schroeder (D-CO)
President Trump faces serious legal trouble that would ruin an ordinary politician’s career. The legal problem comes from New York Attorney General Alvin Bragg’s investigation on whether President Trump, as a candidate, was involved in paying hush money to a pornstar. Currently, no indictments have been filed, though if the grand jury votes to indict Trump, the American people might see a former president in handcuffs. Such a sight would shock Americans, and conventional wisdom would say he’s finished, but Donald Trump is anything but a conventional man. While it is very tempting to believe that this incoming legal battle will be the missile that sinks him, I still think that he will bounce back from this setback and be able to win the Republican nomination for 2024 resoundingly.
There are several reasons why Donald Trump will likely win, but three reasons stand out the most. The first is that the upcoming 2024 primary is shaping up like a repetition of the 2016 primary. In 2016, 16 Republican candidates were vying for the nomination, an unprecedented number that diluted both attention and support from the more mainstream candidates. With donor and voter support divided among several candidates, Donald Trump could stand out with his small but fiercely loyal group of supporters that turned out for him in the primaries. It’s fascinating to look back and see that Trump won a majority of voters in only 15 states, though most of these states had their primaries after the other candidates conceded.
The 2024 primaries appear the same, though the competition is more concentrated now. Now, Donald Trump is facing the popular Florida governor Ron DeSantis who commands a strong third of the electorate. If the field were between these two candidates, Governor DeSantis would likely - albeit not indeed - defeat Trump in most state primaries. However, candidates like vice president Mike Pence, UN ambassador Nikki Haley, and possibly South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and secretary of state Mike Pompeo are coming out of the woodwork. In recent polling, these candidates collectively captured around ~10-15% of the vote, which would likely have gone to Governor DeSantis. We don’t know if these candidates will remain in the race long enough to act as a spoiler in favor of Trump, but the longer they stay in the race, the harder it will be for DeSantis to win at least a plurality of voters.
Another reason that is being under-reported is that President Trump’s campaign is very different this time around in that it is more conventional. Whereas amateurs and family members primarily managed his previous campaigns, today, the campaign is led by core aides and campaign professionals. True, his campaign still has his rallies and fiery speeches like his address at CPAC, but lately, he is going for the more familiar form of retail politics, from going to diners to taking questions from ordinary people. This change is warranted because he faces a formidable challenge and must score decisive wins early. Still, Trump’s acceptance of running a conventional campaign shows he can adapt to the environment when forced.
These two reasons highlight that Trump remains a force to be reckoned with, but they are not enough for him to win the nomination outright. This leads me to the third and largest reason why Trump will win: he still owns the narrative. Whenever he posts on Truth Social or makes an announcement, it becomes newsworthy, and Republicans are forced to react or even stand behind him. Let’s take Trump’s claim that he will likely be indicted and arrested soon. Shortly after this statement, Republicans nationwide - including his primary rivals - were on air defending the president and denouncing Bragg’s investigation as “politically motivated.” Even Governor DeSantis, who would benefit the most from a Trump conviction, was forced to offer some condemnation after the party base denounced his back-handed criticism. Whether they stood behind the president out of fear or genuine loyalty, the fact that Republicans still defended a former president facing several investigations shows that the GOP remains under Trump’s influence. As long as Trump can still own the narrative, his opponents have almost no chance of winning.
But what about the general election?
Based on these three reasons mentioned above, it appears likely that Donald Trump will again be the Republican nominee for president next year. Yet re-taking the presidency remains an open question, given that the American public still regards him unfavorably. His legal battles will not win him any new voters beyond the ones that have supported him so far, and the Democrats have proven they can win competitive elections if his name is attached to extreme candidates. Yet, as the country is facing a banking crisis, and inflation is still looming, the Republicans can regain the White House if the Biden administration makes significant missteps.
It is too soon to make any calls on the general election, but having Trump as the nominee risks the party’s aspirations to control Congress. Most of Donald Trump’s picks for last year’s midterm elections underperformed more conventional candidates in swing states, and there’s no evidence this will change in the near future. But again, the 2024 conventions are over a year away, and the national climate can change overnight. Until the voting booths open, we’ll have to wait and see.