Presidents Post-Cold War Special Series: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.
My Expectations for my Fifth President
As of January 20th, my presidential series is incomplete thanks to President Biden’s inauguration. I was jarred that after nearly 32 years of wanting the job, he is sworn in without a crowd or an outgoing president to greet his new administration. I also found it ironic that one of the bands playing was the one-hit band New Radicals as if to foreshadow Biden will be a one-term president (though You Get What You Give is still a good song). In hearing his call for a return to normalcy and unity, I remain skeptical given that much of what happened in the past four years cannot (or even should not) be so easily reversed. While I did endorse this man as a rebuke to a bad president, I must admit that I have few expectations for an administration that will likely be remembered as a footnote.
His Greatest Feature
President Biden’s election marks less of a return to normalcy and more of a pause as Americans became tired of President Trump’s antics and the over-reaction that occurred after every tweet. Americans elected a man that will not be the cause of increased blood pressure after wasting time on social media (at least if you’re a Democrat). President Biden isn’t a charismatic figure like President Obama nor is a person that can engender much personal rancor against him like President Trump. That is perhaps President Biden’s greatest personal feature: he is a largely uninteresting man. By being personally uninteresting, and hopefully lead an uninteresting administration (i.e. no real political scandals), he can give Americans a sigh of relief allowing them to maintain a passive interest in politics. In this, his presidency may be described in terms of Atlas: holding up the sky not to elevate humanity but to keep the world from being crushed. Hopefully Biden can encourage Americans to start mending fences with their neighbor. It will be a welcome change - and his greatest accomplishment - if he succeeds on that objective.
Obama’s Third Term
There is one issue that may impede on that objective: Biden being seen as a third term for President Obama. Now President Biden has explicitly denied that his administration will be “Obama’s third term” stating that times have changed since 2017. This is a curious assertion coming from a man who campaigned as Obama’s VP during the primary and touted his credentials against President Trump. He is also taking great strides to restore some of President Obama’s legacy by rejoining the Paris climate agreement and focusing on racial justice within his first executive orders. I suppose some return to President Obama was to be expected, but to have a full embrace of his Democratic predecessor is a note for concern, and can be his administration’s undoing.
One example of this is his foreign policy cabinet picks, of which many have direct ties to the Obama administration. Putting aside the fact that some of his cabinet choices were downright strange at times, including placing John Kerry as climate czar or Susan Rice in the Domestic Policy Council, other familiar faces do not engender much optimism. For example, many of his foreign policy team are proud members of the “Blob,” the foreign policy establishment derided by Ben Rhodes. Whereas Obama kept many of them at arm’s length, President Biden appears to embrace them wholeheartedly touting their expertise and credentials. Good presidents know when to listen to their advisors and when to tune them out given their excesses. President Biden appears to over-correct Trump’s mistake in never listening to touting he will always listen to experts. This is cause for worry given his advisors will likely embrace a left-Wilsonian foreign policy that will be out of place given they, as Stephen Walt argued in Foreign Policy, “… remain committed to an image of U.S. global leadership that was never as successful as they believe and is badly outdated today.” Hopefully, President Biden’s focus on domestic policy will prevail though a return of the old guard doesn’t - nor shouldn’t - yield praise from Americans and our allies.
President Biden is correct in saying that times have changed, yet he doesn’t seem to fully grasp it with his cabinet choices or a visible change in political philosophy. By signaling he in fact wants to deviate little from President Obama, President Biden is running the risk of repeating some of his mistakes without much fallback from Democrats. President Obama entered office with a strong Congressional majority which President Biden doesn’t have. President Obama’s popularity was robust with enthusiasm; already President Biden is facing threats from progressives. Without a strong Congressional majority or robust popular support, his coalition can quickly dissipate before he establishes his agenda. To succeed in his presidency, he will have to distance himself from President Obama’s administration and deliver big accomplishments that shows he is bold and decisive. By making early bold moves with COVID relief and vaccination, he can build his credibility as someone who can make DC work again giving him the political capital needed for any larger initiatives. It’s clear that President Biden wants to pay homage and honor Obama’s legacy; he can do that by setting higher aspirations.
Trumpism Deferred?
It’s easy to see Trump as defeated after the inauguration. The events on January 6th shook many Republicans into being against the president and it appears that most - if not all - DC politicians are putting the old president past them. President Trump’s hardcore followers, most notably QAnon, appear to be largely disappointed at their president for riding off into the Florida sunset without them. While I’m pleased that the hardcore followers of Trump the man are starting to leave him, I wouldn’t be so certain Trumpism is finished. The conditions that allowed Trump to arrive - widening inequality, rapid cultural changes, and hyper-partisanship - still remain bubbling beneath the surface. While the Republican elite, as Eric Livitz mentioned, remain ensconced with free-market economics and foreign interventionism, they can still be displaced in time as the party base replaces leadership with those aligned with their demands. Such replacement happened before, most notably in the 1960s and 70s where the Republicans morphed into a right-liberal party even after embarrassing defeats in 1964 and 1976 for Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, respectively. The same can happen here and in some ways appears to be starting over again with primary threats to Republican leadership gathering momentum. I would argue that Trumpism has yet to find direction post-Trump, but that direction can come in these next four years.
Whether the insurgency will be strong enough to propel Republicans to take back Congress in two years, or even the White House in four, is still in question though I suspect it won’t be the case for now. Yet if President Biden decides to wade in cultural or social issues, even as small and low-effort as replacing “alien” in immigration law, he risks firing up the Republican base and quite possibly accelerating the GOP’s transformation. The Democrats already have a very slim grasp of Congress that can be easily lost in 2022 and it is very possible that Trump, or a more competent successor, will be on the ballot that will cause liberals to once again pour ashes on their foreheads. Even now, there are threats to his government as the Senate still hasn’t agreed on a power-sharing arrangement threatening to hold up confirmation hearings for Biden’s cabinet. I’m not sure how can he temper or help shape the populism present in both sides, as there are structural issues he must repair yet doesn’t have the political capital to do so. The best he can do is to win decisive victories early on to be able to address inequality or hyper-partisanship, hence proving that the Democrats and the establishment can properly govern. If not, my party will be waiting in the wings and Americans may finally give the establishment the boot for good.
Trump 2024? | Courtesy of @RealDonaldTrump
Final Verdict (?)
I’m not that excited for President Biden even though he will be more competent executing the powers of office than his predecessor. He will likely have some victories and he may be able to secure his COVID stimulus package through Congress. Yet the flaws that were present in the Obama and Clinton administration will likely repeat with him, especially given that he seems to double down on the ideals and advisors that will steer him toward the mistakes of his liberal predecessors. I expect President Biden to be a caretaker president, capable of managing the government and providing a sense of normalcy, while deferring on the unresolved issues that President Trump brought to light.
Yet when it comes to political predictions, I try to follow the story told in Charlie Wilson’s War about the Zen master and the little boy. The boy gets a horse and the villagers said, “how wonderful,” but the Zen master mused, “we’ll see.” A couple of years later the boy fell from his horse, badly breaking his leg and everyone in the village said, “how awful,” but the Zen master again mused, “we’ll see.” Then a war breaks out and all the men have to go fight except for the boy as his leg is still bad. Can you guess what the village and the Zen master said?
Life rarely goes according to plan and few projections are reasonably accurate with even fewer being on point. It is very likely that President Biden will fail in being president allowing President Trump to return in some form. It is also likely that President Biden can succeed in influencing the rise of populism within both parties through his accomplishments in government and in society. Both scenarios are two extremes with the truth likely standing in between. So will Biden be able to rise to the occasion or fail to live up to the presidents he praised in his inauguration? Will America swim or will it sink under the 46th president?
We’ll see.